Reconsidering space-for-time substitution in climate change ecology.

-Space-for-time substitution -Ecological Forecasting

Author

Kelly A. Heilman

Doi

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02392-0

Citation

Evans, M.E.K., Adler, P.B., Angert, A.L., Dey, S.M.N., Girardin, M.P., Heilman, K.A., Klesse, S., Perret, D.L., Sax, D.F., Sheth, S.N., Stemkovski, M. Williams, J.L. 2025. Reconsidering space-for-time substitution in climate change ecology. Comment, Nature Climate Change. In press.

Abstract:

Ecologists often leverage patterns observed across spatial climate gradients to predict the impacts of climate change (space-for-time substitution). We highlight evidence that this can be misleading not just in the magnitude but in the direction of effects, explain why, and make suggestions for improving the reliability of ecological forecasts.